Cheerleaders & Myths

Weight of the Evidence

We have several famous goofballs predicting $1000 in gold, possibly even to $700. Is the dollar that valuable? Wow! Shame on me! Oh, by the way, where is the supporting evidence?

Another nutcase says we are going to $10,000 gold but one should only have 10% of your net assets in gold. Excuse me, if you are really certain we are going that high, a 10% allocation does not make any logical sense, now does it? Oh sorry, how are the book sales doing?

A former minister who somehow squeezed inside information from elites on their deathbeds has been wrong on the dollar collapse for 3+ years. Am sure glad he has been wrong for so long otherwise I would have missed the moon shot madness. What a relief!

Finally, another well known character says we are going to $2000 gold in May 2017 due to some mysterious 264 year old British cycle. How timely! Must be the greatest thing since indoor plumbing. Where do I sign up?

Conclusion

Now I see why we have such few people in this gold mine with the rest sleeping or hiking on by to more golden pastures. Helping people help themselves is really dumb. It tells me we don't need proof of predictions, just promises of profit.
 
Regrettably, there are no outlandish forecasts either, just boring mathematical time frame clock trends and formulas in harmony with nature and human behavior. My error.

The weight of this evidence is not reassuring.

I need to reform quickly and mooch off the masses rather than requiring real interest to enter this exclusive club!

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Cheerleaders - Credibility Counts

On a weekly basis, we see predictions for an explosion in gold/silver prices, short squeezes and indications of imminent turnarounds.

A simple 200 day moving average for the past two years would have told these purveyors of prosperity the trend was down. Unfortunately, this was totally ignored.

False Flags of Hope

As suggested four months ago, “If you want to get pumped with prospects of prosperity, visit some cheerleader sites." These sites are complete with gold price forecasts of $3000 to $11,000 or more. Regrettably, no discussion is ever given as to the kind of world we will be living in if gold were to achieve any of those those high levels.

And then we have “We will never see 1600 gold again as we skyrocket to 3000”. Oh really? Have you considered that you may not see 1600 again because it’s lost in the clouds above you which are now dumping buckets of rain on your parade?

Many sites use these tactics to increase the number of visitors, sell a product or obtain a short term shelf life of notoriety. 

All these activities provide a false flag of hope without foundation.

Reasonable, Rational and Realistic

There are very few analysts who provide reasonable, rational and realistic analysis for your consideration. 

Here at Market Pendulum, there are no outrageous forecasts, hype or moon shot predictions. Trading methodology and commentary always includes supporting evidence.

Creative Cheerleader Advice

For those involved in cheerleading, here is my answer…


If you don't succeed in cheerleading…

A Government Job is Available


BEWARE OF PREGNANT TREND CHEERLEADERS
 
USE (Indicator) BIRTH CONTROL


Don't Drink and Drive 
While Cheerleading

You might hit a bump and spill
your secret concoction

A Fool and his Money

Can throw one heck of a cheerleading party

Until the Dawn of Reality


And my final word on this subject...

Credibility counts.

7/31/13 (Updated August 2014)
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Oh Really? 

“A Spring rally is just around the bend”. Oh really! Which bend in the road would that be? The one near that cliff?

“All the wonderful fundamentals are in place and sentiment is in the basement.” No kidding! Why are there still more sellers than buyers present?

“I am a contrarian and buy low”. Oh really, how interesting! Excuse me, how do you define “low”?

“I am a value investor”. Oh really! I get it. That is the fine art of buying low and selling lower, isn’t it?

“I feel the trend will turn up shortly”. Oh really? On the basis of what feeling would that be? All primary trends are down and this is a classic configuration of a bear trend. Ooops!

“We will never see 1600 gold again as we skyrocket to 3000”. Oh really? Have you considered that you may not see 1600 again because it’s now lost in the clouds above you which are now dumping buckets of rain on your parade?

Oh Really?

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Myths, Moonshots & Moonshine

Everyone wants to know the future. Of course, if you did know the future, you would only be a robot fulfilling a plan. But that is a mere side issue. There is a better way! 

Straight from the myth monster’s mouth, I have collected 4 of the more popular predictions so you can carefully plan your bright future. There is no turning back now.


Your Future Headlines

  • Next month, China is scheduled to announce their current gold reserves. These will be totaled together with the US and the rest of the world’s gold reserves. When the grand total exceeds all the gold historically mined, it will be assumed the US is lying. As a result, gold will do a giant moonshot and we all will be rich!

  • There is indeed a giant “Asteroid 2003” coming which will impact earth on March 21. If it falls on land, it will obliterate a couple of countries. If it falls in the Atlantic, it will create a giant tsunami which will make Noah’s flood look like a friendly cannonball splash at a swimming party. Regrettably, astronomers now say it will miss the earth by a wide margin. What a relief!

  • On July 27th, the world will end. This announcement is largely based on various decoded Bible texts and the “Ghost Month” on the Chinese calendar. You should donate any gold you have left to this organization for its expenses in bringing everyone this final message. Of course!

  • We are on verge of financial disaster and gold will make a huge leap upward any day now because income does not meet expenses and total debt is far beyond our means. Unfortunately, a crisis of confidence has not occurred and the government has a minimum of 14 delaying tactics, of which only 9 have occurred. This is comforting news for all the procrastinators!

You also missed the earliest “end of the world prediction” from ancient Assyrian tablets in 28 BC. Sorry about that.

These all rank right up there with my piece on the Mayan Mayhem Prophecy below where we were asked to believe the Mayan predictions for December 21, 2012 when they could not even forecast their own demise.

In Conclusion - My Three Predictions

  • There is a strong probability that more false predictions will occur from those who need a short shelf life of notoriety, have something to sell or who have drank their own moonshine.

  • The only thing more certain (besides death and taxes) is that we cannot mathematically payoff our debts. Let’s see. Should we jump off that fiscal cliff, scale it or donate our gold to Ft. Knox?

  • I again predict that tomorrow the sun will come up in the east, birds will chirp, and yawns will occur with a probability bordering on certainty. How reassuring!

Enjoy your future, while it lasts.

3/5/14

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In the Matter of Mayan Mayhem & Other Myths

The Mayans had creator gods called Kukulkan who attempted two times to create man in their own image but failed. “Kuku” and his fellow gods, like storm god Huracan (no joke), finally got it right on the third try. On August 11, 3114 BCE the Mayans were created. People in other parts of the world were ignored as irrelevant since they were created by other competing “gods”.

Along the way, they allegedly developed significant astrological and astronomical predictive observations, all without telescopes by the way, and a long count calendar of 13 baktuns, which now ends in 2 days. Unfortunately, their calendar and starry eyed observations failed to predict their own demise by 900 AD. Primary reasons given for their decline by respected scientists were peasant revolt, overpopulation, disease or drought. They did regenerate after 900 AD somewhat, just in time to be conquered by Spanish in 1511. This event was also not adequately covered by their calendar.

Now it is true that we have a rare 25,772 year alignment of the sun on that day with our galaxy’s center (from our perspective on earth) so the Mayans did get that right. But our “sun is but one of a few hundred billion stars that make up the Milky Way Galaxy”. Am quite sure other “suns” have had similar alignments without hazards.

Doomsday Calendar

Based on the Mayan calendar, we have an overwhelming number of myth monsters who purport to show the end of the world has been predicted in two days time based on this celestial event. Excuse me. What is wrong with this picture?

The doomsday calendar proponents also say Jupiter is on one side of earth’s orbit and Saturn on the other, the pull of which will create giant earthquakes, pole shifts and solar maximum activity. In addition, they state that the infamous, unknown and unproven 10th planet Nibiru will reappear from behind the sun at high noon on December 21st to further create chaos, calamity and a celestial fireworks show.

A Probability Bordering on Certainty

My assessment? An interesting but irrelevant celestial calendar event where the sun’s centering plus Jupiter and Saturn’s relative positioning create a gravity balance, not Mayan Mayhem and other nonsense.

If you're concerned about the fate of mankind, there are more pressing, down to earth mathematical matters, like debt, default and drought issues than the end of the Mayan calendar. There is simply no evidence that December 21, 2012 will have any more importance than the previous Y2K hysteria.

On my calendar, I predict the sun will come up in the east, birds will chirp, and yawns will occur with a probability bordering on certainty.

12/19/12
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A Probability Bordering on Certainty
Click here 
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