Key Posts & Insights

Insights of Interest

”Put it before them Briefly so they will Read it, Clearly so they will Appreciate it, Picturesquely so they will Remember it, and above all, Accurately so they will be guided by it.” - Joseph Pulitzer.


There is a considerable amount of data and information on this website and in the Pendulum Trader Collection. Here is a brief collection of insights, analogies and opinions drawn from various Market Pendulum articles that may be of interest.

On Trends 
 
In what may appear to be pure randomness of price change, there is order in this chaos in the form of a trend which is based on multiple variables acting upon it. We cannot know all the variables but we can see the result in the form of a trend over time and distance.
 
The Market Pendulum time frame model is really quite simple. The gears in this “clock” are the daily, weekly and monthly time frame trends. One must first determine the time frame trend of any index, stock or commodity to have any prospect of a successful trade. 

A trend is like a river flowing in its banks, around rocks and sharp bends. Occasionally, a river will be stable and flow smoothly. But at other points, it will be hazardous with wild rapids, a deep gorge, even a water fall or two. The trend is not about measuring the waves in the river because wave analysis is about as valuable as a rear view mirror in a head on collision with a rock. The trend is all about direction, energy and flow. 

A trend, whether positive or negative, always starts first in the daily time frame before any possible migration to higher time frames.  

On Market Opinions

What makes a market is that everyone has a different opinion, objective and outlook. If we all agreed, there would be no market trends and no need for trading. So we should welcome different opinions and the various opportunity trends that result.

On Probabilities

In trading markets, we can measure trends and cycles but what we are really doing is probability analysis. We do not absolutely know the outcome, only a probable result. However, in longer term trends and cycles, the probabilities become more reliable.

On Strategic Trading

A powerful trading strategy is driven by ideas and backed by hard data and information. Hoping, wishing and praying are not viable investment options.

If one uses the same indicators as everyone else, regrettably, one gets the same results. 

When there is no fear of risk, the risk of failure now has foundation. 

This month's waterfall decline and its ultimate end will be seen by many and recognized by few for the nuggets of opportunity and value it represents.

On Gold

It would be wise to consider gold first as an insurance premium just like you would for your car, home or health insurance. The benefit of any further waterfall declines in gold prices provides a great opportunity to obtain substantial discounts on those “insurance premiums”. Make sure you are not too late insuring your own financial future since no one cannot predict exactly when that claim may appear.

The primary purpose for buying gold or silver is for preservation, protection and profit as well as survival from the destruction of paper money.

On Gold Stocks

Stocks still have many question marks and may not be as fortunate if nationalizations occur, royalties/taxes increase or downtrends continue.

If you want to beat the hedgies, momentum players and the caboose people, one must take appropriate risks when on sale prices occur, not after a 19% rise.

On the S&P500, USD & Bonds

The S&P500 is likely to attain new highs in 2014 but its bubble bull market will probably end in 2015. In addition, a predicted monetary, USD and bond market collapse by others is not just around the corner. It will be delayed due to various tactics referenced. (9/28/13)

It is also worth noting that the S&P500 has never had 7 up years in a row. This period ends in March 2016. There is always a first time for everything but I will go with those long term probabilities and record.

On Financials

Living within ones means is a concept that needs to be imported and adopted. Simple logic, third grade math and an empty piggy bank would clarify the problem for most people. The math is quite simple and knows no political affiliation. 

We are not accountants or economists but we all know when things do not add up. If your financial boat has only $1.5 trillion in income but $2.0 trillion in expenses, you are sunk. Rearranging the deck chairs, bailing and pumping and hoping and praying for a miracle rescue are not viable options. The math is simply not there and this boat will not float. 

To avoid the inevitable, there will be alternatives proposed, laws adopted and delaying tactics implemented. This will result in:
  • Change we cannot believe in
  • Solutions we cannot trust
  • Transparency we cannot see

Do not be fooled. This total financial picture is not one of survival, success or solutions but a clear act of desperate drowning in the frigid waters of financial reality.

On Confidence 

There is a clear question of confidence if you are riding in a car toward a financial cliff with no reverse gear, airbags or brakes. Under those circumstances, it does make sense to at least have a clear windshield and view of all the possible outcomes, none of which are good.

On Cheerleaders

On a weekly basis, we see predictions for an explosion in gold/silver prices, short squeezes and indications of imminent turnarounds. All these activities provide a false flag of hope without foundation.

All the cheerleading in the world does not change a trend. Predictions or forecasts based on other than the mathematical trend evidence are false and should be ignored.

Credibility counts. Most people are not interested in fantasy, fiction or fads but in facts.  

On the Website

The primary purpose of this website has been to assist investors, based on our experience, in a certain investment area or direction so they can properly conduct their own due diligence.

You will not find blue sky predictions, only clear, credible and convincing evidence.

Related Reading:
Pendulum Trader
Quotes of Note
Cheerleaders & Myths - an entertaining look at several false flags of hope, hype and history.

Insights from 2002 to 2015 (Updated 10/15)

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