“To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the
You really do not want to know the future because if you did, you would simply be a robot fulfilling that future “plan”. There would
be no free will, no choices and no mystery.
Intrading markets, we can measure trends and cycles but what we are
really doing is probability analysis. We do not absolutely know the outcome,
only a probable result. However, in longer term trends and cycles, the probabilities become more reliable.
First, some supportingbackground information.
Trend & Cycle Decoded
Mathematician Jeffrey West describes trends and cycles as follows:
appearances, price movements appear not random, but chaotic. These apparent
chaotic conditions are a tangled web of cause and effect creating innumerable
variables and probable outcomes. This is the defining characteristic of chaos,
but within this web of chaos, it does have a certain structure. Decoding and
defining investing behavior and its variables reveals tell-tale signs of this
group structure, its mass (force) and direction. These results are
probabilities of varying strength and force depending on the length of the
trend or cycle. Longer cycles equal a greater reliability of a probable
behavior and structure is otherwise known as the “herd instinct” and it depends
on a large group participating in this trend of boom and bust.”
structure and behavior create geometric, mathematical trends and cycles. This
is not unlike spiders spinning their geometrically perfect webs with no apparent
awareness of their amazing feats. As the web grows larger, the picture becomes
more complete revealing the beauty, harmony and balance of nature’s
Trend & Cycle Analysis
The primary object for
serious traders and investors is to first determine the posture of the time frame clock trends
(daily, weekly and monthly) for any index, stock or commodity you wish to trade
and act accordingly.
Pendulum’s Trend and Cycle analysis is a first class methodology that helps decode this market
structure, behavior and process.
All the cheerleading in the world does not change a trend or cycle.Patience, money management skills and attention to the mathematical trend evidence is still required.
The "Time Frame Clock" trend methodology is more fully described in the Pendulum Trader.
------------------------------------------------ The Pendulum Project
The Pendulum Project is not about “work in
progress”. It’s all about "Projections" within the monthly time frame
predictions is always inherently dangerous but far more reliable in longer term
trends as fully described "Trend & Cycle Decoded" above. The
Pathfinder PTD formula is my method for making minimum price projections
(goals) within any Pendulum Project monthly time frame trend for any stock or
index. More details here
------------------------------------------------ Why Bitcoin is Worthless - Click here
”Put it before them
Briefly so they will Read it, Clearly so they will Appreciate it, Picturesquely
so they will Remember it, and above all, Accurately so they will be guided by
it.” - Joseph Pulitzer.
There is a considerable amount of data and information on
this website and in thePendulum Trader Collection.Here is a brief collection of insights, analogies and opinions
drawn from various Market Pendulum articles that may be of interest.
“Simplicity is the ultimate
sophistication” – Leonardo da Vinci
An awareness of time frame trends
is critical to the success of any investment. In my view, it is my gold standard for trading in
context and setting.
Most investors ignore this context, deal only with the daily
fluctuations and forget about the effect of higher trend forces on lower trends.
Key Points of
Determining if the daily time frame is positive is the vital first step before moving on to higher time frames.
A positive TDI weekly posture is a key metric and “steering mechanism”.
Without its positive force, any investment will have less potential and power.
Trading should always occur within the context and setting of the next
higher time frame to determine the duration and durability of the current trade. This is a
simple and logical exercise.
If your preferred trading time frame is not positive, stand aside.
One can claim to be an early contrarian or value investor. Be sure the time frame trends support that outlook.
One can also claim to be ahead of the
herd. If you are
riding ahead of the herd, take a look back every now and then and make sure
it’s still there!
All the cheerleading in the world, with notices of impending moon
shots and other assorted nonsense, does not change adverse trends and
Predictions or forecasts based on other than the mathematical trend evidence
are false and should be ignored.
We can avoid disillusionment, despair
and discouragement if we ask ourselves one simple question. What is the trend?
A trend, whether positive or negative,always starts first
in the daily time frame, before any possible migration to other time frames.
If the daily trend is positive but both the weekly and monthly are
negative, the lifespan of the daily is clearly limited because the stronger
trend forces are pressing down on the daily time frame and limiting its
progress.That is why the daily fails.
a failure occurs it pays to wait until a
new daily trend is again identified before considering reentering. At
that time, review the status of higher time frames.
Trading in Context
Trading should always occur
within the context and setting of the next higher time frame. For example, the
weekly trend is 5 times stronger than the daily. The monthly trend is 22 times
stronger than the daily.
Upon achieving a positive weekly (and later, a monthly) overall trend
power is enhanced. This allows for a longer duration in the trade and a
larger potential profit.
If one truly understands
this simple time frame trend concept, one is already miles ahead of the crowd.
Simple trading logic and in plain sight all along.
You will note there are links to Finviz and Investopedia,
both of which are free.
Finviz offers charts of stocks, commodities, futures and
forex, an economic calendar as well as financial data for stocks and news. This site is used by
traders, investors and major financial institutions as a primary platform for market research. It is my first stop
every morning for the general picture.