The Independence Gold Mine - Special Presentation

"Discovery is seeing what everybody else has seen, and thinking what nobody else has thought." - Albert Szent-Györgyi

A Prospector's Predictions

A wise old prospector was recently interviewed for his advice on the current condition of the gold and silver markets.

To illustrate his opinion, he revealed a true but forgotten mining story.

Gold was discovered on July 4, 1879 near Independence Pass. At 10,900 ft, mining could only be done from May to October.

This was a "rare gold camp in an otherwise silver-rich region"

By 1882 it had 1500 residents, 40 businesses including 4 boarding houses, 3 saloons and a newspaper, the Independence Miner.

Following the legendary discovery, many mines in the area were developed including the Independence, Dolly Varden, and Champion and he showed me the following yellowed newspaper clipping.

"During the winter of 1899, the worst storm in Colorado’s history cut off the supply routes to Independence. The [remaining] miners, who were running out of food, proceeded to dismantle their homes to make 75 pairs of skis and to escape en masse to Aspen."

All the mines subsequently closed and Independence became a ghost town. As it later turned out, they were just a few feet short of the Mother Lode, according to a geological survey in 2015 (est $1.2/bil). But did interest really close? Snowballs chance.

A Prospector's Perspective

Today, 140 years after the Independence Mine discovery, he noted that many gold prospectors are, once again, one snowflake away from a blizzard of sell orders, having finally given up and just three feet from the Mother Lode. 

In his view, the two questions before the remaining prospectors are whether they now need skis to get out of Dodge before the selling avalanches occur or would patience and the prospect of a profit picture prevail by Independence Day, July 4, 2019.

The old prospector sat silent for minute, as if deciding whether to continue or not.

Then, leaning forward in a low whisper, he gave me a confidential but most definite opinion on the matter with lots of supporting details. My eyes glazed over trying to absorb it all.

I can tell you he did say "It would not take 140 years, 140 months or even 140 days to start a major new gold bull market". He did say, "concentrate on silver". In fact he told me, by his calculations, one down and out silver mining stock, having gone below $1.00 several times, would rise to about $4.23 this year. And "that is just the beginning". Say what? Too good to be true?

That was the end of our evening interview as he got up, walked out the door and disappeared into the night.

Sorry, I could not pry the name of the stock out of him or his reasoning but he was adamant about the number having "done this many times before". My apologies to Wolfgang who hates riddles. I do too unless they make money.

Well, how many silver stocks are out there with this history? Any clues from our readers?

Let's all start patiently digging for this Independence Mine. It's time.

Trader Garrett
4/17/19 (updated 4/21/19)


The Independence Gold Mine
Part 2

Razzle Dazzle Revelations

In a second somewhat cantankerous interview with the old prospector, he acknowledged AXU was the correct answer to the silver stock clues but "didn't think we would get it." How reassuring to our elite group of miners! 

So I said, "You calculated and predicted AXU would go to $4.23 this year. Right?"

"Well", he said pausing and choosing his words carefully, "I calculated your readers needed an early booster shot. Who cares if it gets there this year. It will get there. Patience, my friend!"

My response was, "Hey dingbat, we don't much care for bait and switch. Patience is at a premium for my readers who are disappearing faster than Arctic ice melt. Where is the good stuff?"

"AXU is Canada's only primary silver producer in one of the top 3 highest grade areas in the world, has 30.4/mil oz of P&P reserves + 83.5/mil indicated resources, a low AISC of $10.86 and an after tax IRR of 74%. Duh! WPM gets no 25% streaming income after $25 oz silver. While their various mines are on care and maintenance due to low prices, they do have other income from a side business (AEG), another no-brainer help. The gold/silver ratio is historically very high at 87-1. View the latest COT Report. Again, concentrate on silver!"

Ok, I give in. Moving on to gold, what's your best option stocks when trends are positive?

"THM and VGZ. They require $1400 gold to really get going. Then there is SBB with its very high grade 7.3/mil resource + a significant silver royalty. All these were courtesy of my earlier recommendations."

On April 17th, you said "It would not take 140 days to start a major new gold bull market." That ends September 4th.

"Amazing, you got the math right there Einstein."

You also asked the rhetorical question, "Would patience and the prospect of a profit picture prevail by Independence Day, July 4th, 2019?"

"Correct answer is yes."

Three Month Countdown

You indicated gold miners were "one snowflake away from a blizzard of sell orders, having finally given up just three feet from the Mother Lode." Is there a hidden message there?

"Yes, we have had three weeks of selling and all primary trends are now in alignment parading downhill. In fact, the worst case objective low for the XAU is about $52 to 57."

Ut oh! This is not good.

"You got that right. However, any new daily trend likely marks a major low, if not the the final low. More importantly, any weekly closing rise over [XAU] $79 at any time after any new daily, is a back up the truck moment. Put that in your pipe and smoke it."

Wow! That's encouraging. I will keep track of those parameters.

"Just to be clear, the main message is 3 months from April 17 for the prospect of a profit picture to appear and a major low before September 4th. This would provide time to complete base pattern development which should then have beginning elements of a longer term Mother Lode trend in place."

That seems crystal clear. Now, what if you suspect drilling will fail to locate the Mother Lode trend during this period?

"Suspicions and failure are not in my vocabulary sonny. I use a strict mining plan that will reveal its presence whenever that occurs. My goal is 140 days or less or I will eat one of my hats, if I have any left."

Oh my, some humor! I think I hear clapping.

How Did He Do Dat?

Here are my additional questions and his answers which revolve around his "How did he do dat?"

If your predictions come true, would it be due to:

Blind sheer luck?
"I don't believe in blind luck. Insight is better. No pun intended, of course."

Wisdom beyond your years?
"Hey, I'm too old. How many more wisdom years do I need?"

A secret shaken but not stirred sauce?
"I don't cook!"

Tea leaves?
"I don't drink tea."

A mathematical concoction?
"Am not a mathematician. Actually, I hate math, especially subtraction."

A favorable astrological alignment?
"I live on earth and am no space cadet."

This interview is not going well...

So I said, "You could sell this valuable information and live happily ever after!"

"Why after? I've already lived happily before and made a dime or two in the process."

Senility Sets In

Curiously, the old prospector then noted both the XAU & AXU have the same 3 initials, just arranged differently, almost like twins. He also noted his legal name also has 3 initials too, but they are "GAS".

What has that got to do with the price of beans?

"Nothing really", he said, "but what a GAS! If you reverse the letters, it spells 'SAG'. That describes periodic downtrends, like this interview, but we are about to hit the 'GAS' pedal in July."

Hmm...I think senility is setting in for this snooty old scrooge!

The Folly of Frustration

Getting frustrated, I said, "I give up, how did you do all dat?"

Here is his answer...

"It's really very simple. In the terms of price, time and distance, time is the most important. Price and distance follow. Meditate on that for a minute.

Like a pendulum, human history, behavior and trends repeat in time. Primary trends are the daily, weekly and monthly with a new daily being most important particularly if the rest are in a positive time frame posture. That's the holy grail of great profits.

Just follow the power line up thru the train tracks and make a dime or two for your own Independence Mine."

"By the way", he continued, "It's not important if I am right or wrong. Who cares. What's really important is to sit still, let the numbers come to you and then back up the truck. That's my best advice, kimo sabe."

Prospector's Final Thoughts

Any other final thoughts you would like to share with our readers?

"No more interviews please! We will break thru the $1400 gold barrier later this year and achieve heights previously never thought possible in the following 2-3 years. You can go to the bank on that one."

Well, thank you very much and congratulations on your achievements! Could I have your autograph?

"Sure, write it down. It's G.A.S."

This character kills me!

Conclusion of Interview

There is nothing like having razzle dazzle revelations in advance and (hopefully) being correct too!

A quote from Lawrence of Arabia might be appropriate now. "Truly, for some men nothing is written unless they write it."

Thank you old timer!

Trader Garrett


July 4th 2019 Results

The Independence Gold Mine
A Prospector's Predictions 

"Would patience and the prospect of a profit picture prevail by Independence Day, July 4, 2019?" - Yes, indeed!

We will break thru the $1400 gold barrier later this year and achieve heights previously never thought possible in the following 2-3 years. You can go to the bank on that one" - Check!

"Any weekly closing rise over $79 (XAU) at any time after a new daily, is a back up the truck moment" Achieved!

"Concentrate on Silver" - Awesome Results!

Recommended Gold/Silver "Option" stock results 
5/12/19 to 7/4/19
AXU 11%, SBB 23%, THM 39% & VGZ 34%

Razzle Dazzle Indeed!

Subsequent Results
from 5/12/19 to the August/September peaks

AXU + 170%
SBB + 104%
THM + 48%
VGZ + 82%

Temporary retracements from these levels are currently in progress and I expect 2020 and beyond to be outstanding years in all areas covered.

3/23/20 Email Update

I have personally contacted the grouchy old prospector who claims "bullion comes first". What a revelation!

He also said that "the prior $1400 gold breakthrough was critical in his Independence Mine series interview and is still valid today as support. weekly XAU [trend] rise thru 79 is again very important with 87 as confirmation. This will take some time but we will get there".

In the grossly undervalued gold area, he is doing due diligence drilling for brand new positions in... 
  • PVG (a high grade producer w/ exceptional cash flow assisting in paying off startup debt) 
  • SA (1/2 oz gold backs every share)
  • MMX (a royalty/streaming company that pays a dividend and has 14 active producing mine incomes w/ no more than 15% exposure in any position).

Naturally a minimum positive daily trend is required first. It will have limited life until a positive weekly trend develops, as clearly demonstrated in Simple Trading Logic.

The Independence Gold Mine 
Old Prospector's Final Interview
Part 3


In our first interview in April 2019, the old prospector told us the true story of the Independence Gold Mine as an illustration of the conditions at the time. From this historical lesson and current drilling activities, he predicted the end of the gold bear market within 140 days or less. This news was well received.

A second interview in May 2019 provided the drilling details, 4 gold and silver stocks in which to invest and a timeline for ultimate success. In early June 2019, the gold bull market did indeed begin. Regrettably, outside of our former students, only one person was interested in this presentation.

A follow up with the grouchy old prospector on March 23, 2020 (another important low) provided 3 new stocks and other guidance items but again, no interest.

Miraculously, we managed to arrange another exclusive interview with the old prospector. This time, surprisingly, we found him in a reflective but still cantankerous mood for this hard hitting interview by our editor.

Final Interview

What has been the old prospectors purpose and goal?

"For 10 years, the primary purpose has been to "help readers help themselves" with proven drilling techniques, tools and tips. 

You are small site. Does this concern you?

"No. My personal success does not depend on the size of the audience but on credible results. I am a drilling expert, not a person proficient in promotional issues. There is a fine line in growing the size of audience without sounding like some snake oil salesman or paid stock promoter who needs to mooch off the masses for monthly income."

You certainly made a great call on the start of the new gold bull market in 2019. Having also reviewed your 7 selections, all are profitable at an average return to date of 108% as of July 15. Failure does not seem to be an option for you.

"As I mentioned before, suspicions and failure are not in my vocabulary sonny. I use a strict mining plan that will reveal its presence whenever that occurs."

What are MPO's and why are they important?

"We have 46 MPO's (minimum price objectives) on resource stocks and various indexes for former students. All forecasts are mathematically based formulas on the monthly trend. 35 (76%) have already arrived at their objectives with many more to come in due course."

In April, you provided readers with 10 Benchmark general market selections, all of which were profitable. 7 of the 10 doubled for an overall 133% return in two months. How was this done?

"Performance is the primary goal, not perfection. Win/loss records are nice but it's how much money you make overall long term that really counts.

Incidentally, any 'thank you' for those blockbuster gifts, is gratefully accepted."

Your drill results and forecasts have largely been overlooked. With your credentials and results, the question is why? Are you too grouchy or lecture too much?

"No one seems to believe such simple mining methods will work. I have sent numerous messages and presentations to other mining professionals which were largely ignored. Clearly, they were not open to fresh ideas, concepts or insights.

Does it bother you to see so little interest?

"In the scheme of things, it is of little concern as we have clearly helped numerous readers over the years row their own boat without the need for any towing services. Others do manage to duplicate, replicate and imitate.

Whether we are ignored, overlooked and forgotten makes no difference. This Independence Mine has 'got the goods' and will still produce large quantities of high grade gold ore with simple mining methods."

Explain the "simple mining method".

"I will say 2 things here...

1) If the number one method with a 90%+ probability rating is to buy a new daily within the context of an existing positive weekly and monthly, how much simpler can one get?

2) A second logical question is, why trade any other method?"

For those of us involved in the resource market, there are not many informed participants.

"Good point there Einstein. Other investors have other overpriced parabolic plans to pursue. It just takes too much time, work and effort for them to explore new, revolutionary and undervalued trends."

Do you think that condition will ever change?

"I understand some investors wouldn't know a gold mine, even with a blinking neon sign pointed at it and lots of documentation. They may not have the patience or vision either. These are just the facts of life but that may change as economic events unfold. In the meantime, am happy to have been of assistance."

What monetary value do you place on the Benchmark System?

"If someone shows up with a $100,000 cashier's check, they might get some details. Obviously, the probabilities of that happening are low."

Will you be publishing any further guidance or results?

"What for? Repeating myself does not add any conviction. Thank you for the opportunity to be of service and the best of luck to everyone."

Any final advice for our readers?

"Many investors are breathlessly waiting for the next breakout or decline in many markets. What's really important is to sit still, let the time frame trend numbers come to you and then back up the truck. That's my best advice, kimo sabe."

Thanks again, old timer!

7/6/20 (Part 3 MPO results updated 2021)


Other Related Material:
St. Elmo Ghost Town- Prospects from Ghosts & Gold - Click here
"My conversation with Simon Mickailovich is out now. Simon is one of the most impressive analysts I came across in my career. His knowledge of #gold is really something. Worth listening!" Click here


While past performance and probabilities are favorable, results are not guaranteed. Use these trade plans, stocks or comments at your own risk. All analytical content and commentary provided within or from this site is aimed purely to educate or inform readers on the potential technical and fundamental aspects and possible value of intelligent, mathematically based research tools and charts for due diligence purposes.

No comments:

Post a Comment