"When there is no fear of risk, the risk of failure now has foundation"
Once again we have numerous calls for a major bear market or crash in the S&P 500. These prophetic false flags of failure have been going on now for several years as noted here without any profit being realized.
Admittedly it is overvalued in several key metrics. Indeed, there are record highs in various ratios including PE, P/B, P/S and other standard indicators of performance.
However, the technical trends in the S&P500 or in broader markets do not agree including 9000+ stocks.
For example, the overall results are as follows:
- 67.2% of stocks are over their 200 day MA
- 62.9% of stocks are over their 50 day MA
Effectively, this is little changed from last July.
While fundamental measurements are extraordinarily high, all primary technical trends are still in a positive posture for the S&P500, DJI and URTH (world index).
In Summary
No one knows when a bear market will begin or if a crash will occur. While I have my suspicions, I don’t know either.
All of us do know that overvaluation trends are unhealthy, unsustainable and unlikely to last. However, there is little technical evidence of a bear market without a minimum weekly downtrend being present. A monthly downtrend would be confirmation. Meanwhile, all primary trends are still positive.
Avoid false prophets of profits.
Invest wisely.
12/9/24
Related: S&P500 + Other Weekly Trade Charts here
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