The S&P500 Didn't Get the Memo
"When there is no fear of risk, the risk of failure now has foundation" ~ Trader Garrett
In our May post entitled "Train Ride or Train Wreck", we noted:
- 68% of stocks over their 200 day MA
- 62% of stocks over their 50 day MA
Current readings are:- 69.5% of stocks over their 200 day MA
- 63.9% of stocks over their 50 day MA
These results on over 9500 stocks are occurring within the context of a new S&P500 all time high 9 days ago and a recent daily downtrend of approximately 5%.
Obviously, the S&P500 didn't get the memo that we are way overvalued, in a recession and a market crash is imminent.
Weekly Trend
A technical bear market cannot begin without a minimum negative weekly trend being present and that event has not yet occurred.
S&P500 Weekly
Yes, there are profound valuation problems everywhere but positive time frame postures take precedent.
The S&P500 is showing some weakness in other proprietary indicators, however, we are clearly not there yet. We don't do predictions anymore as adding one more will not provide conviction.
In Summary
Once again, unless you have a hyperinflationary environment, the over valuation trends we are all familiar with are unhealthy, unsustainable and unlikely to last forever.
Meanwhile, all primary technical trends (except daily) are still in a positive posture and there is little evidence of a bear market without a minimum weekly downtrend being present.
Invest wisely.
7/26/24
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"When there is no fear of risk, the risk of failure now has foundation" ~ Trader Garrett
In our May post entitled "Train Ride or Train Wreck", we noted:
- 68% of stocks over their 200 day MA
- 62% of stocks over their 50 day MA
- 69.5% of stocks over their 200 day MA
- 63.9% of stocks over their 50 day MA
S&P Profound Problems vs Positive Postures
In our February 2024 S&P500 article below, we noted that Finviz showed:
- 64% of stocks are above their 200 day MA
- 58.8% are above the 50 day MA
Those results have since deteriorated to:
- 59.8% above the 200 day MA
- 35.6% above the 50 day MA
Benchmark's daily S&P500 trend is negative but all other higher primary time frame trends are still in a positive posture.
Similarly, lesser known indexes have this daily record. Click to enlarge.
A technical bear market cannot begin without a minimum negative weekly trend being present and that event has not yet occurred. Theoretically, it could occur by the end of May but requires more evidence.
In Summary
Yes, there are profound valuation problems everywhere but positive time frame postures take precedent.
Let's see what happens between now and the end of May. All else is speculation.
4/27/24
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Be Aware,
Beware and Wary
"When there is no fear of risk, the risk of failure now has foundation ~ Trader Garrett
In April 2021's "S&P500 - Overdone, Overvalued, Overdue - Oh Really?" below all primary trends were positive and projections suggested more substantial gains from the 4000 area. By December 2021, a further 20% gain occurred.
Be Aware
Be aware that the S&P500 has arrived above another
round number (5000). Typically a retracement of some degree might be indicated
but is not guaranteed.
Beware
In fact today, Finviz shows 64% of
stocks above their 200 day MA and 58.8% are above the 50 day MA.
Be Wary
Be wary, however, that the S&P 500 continues to be overvalued by any standard metric.
Unless you have a highly inflationary economic environment,
the over valuation trends are unhealthy, unsustainable and unlikely to last.
Be Forewarned
Benchmark Firepower has a strong record on long term forecasts.
It suggests a major bear market in
the S&P500 "may" develop by the end of May 2024. This is an initial
speculative assessment only requiring further data.
Invest wisely.
2/10/24
Everyone knows the S&P500 and some other broad market indexes are way overdone, overvalued and overdue for a major correction. However, the trends do not agree.For example, all primary trends are positive in the daily, weekly, monthly and beyond.
Projections suggest substantial further gains.
Historical Record
See the longer term S&P500 TDI/GPS picture with the current daily, weekly and 20 year monthly charts here.
Benchmark Recommendations & Record has our documented calls on the S&P500 here.
Application Benefit
One of the simplest ways to track trends is by using our TDI and GPS, both of which have an impressive record.
To duplicate or
replicate website charts and results, we strongly recommend using your creative
imagination skills and Simple Trading Logic.
Alternatively, an
entry level free tutorial using premiere indicators is here.
4/2/21
12/31/21 Update - S&P500 gained a further 20%.
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Caveat
While past performance and probabilities are favorable, results are not guaranteed. Use these trade plans, stocks or comments at your own risk. All analytical content and commentary provided within or from this site is aimed purely to educate or inform readers on the potential technical and fundamental aspects and possible value of intelligent, mathematically based research tools and charts for due diligence purposes.
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