Facts
Some would say we live in a world of managed markets. For example, short term interest rates are managed and not allowed to float free. The S&P500 is said to be manipulated periodically and some suggest gold is massacred at key price intervals.
Does it matter? Not to me, and here is why.
All trades are recorded, including the alleged manipulative ones. Even the weird algos from high frequency trading or hedge fund behaviors do not originate from machines but are based on and constructed by humans before being placed into those trading environments. All these produce mathematical trends which we can follow and profit from.
Even the COT data is regarded as a conspiracy to some that follow gold. Here is a factual and true meaning of gold's COT data that everyone can understand even if that published data is delayed by 3 days.
Fiction
One side argues that atmospheric greenhouse gases are a direct result of human activities such as burning fossil fuels. The other side says warming in the 20th century results primarily from natural processes and the “theory of human-caused global climate change is based on questionable measurements, faulty climate models, and misleading science.”
As a result, first we had global warming and when the facts did not fit, it was changed to climate change so we could blame it on human activity and charge someone fees for our negligence.
From Antarctica to Greenland, ice core samples show periodic changes based on the earth’s weather, sun’s heat output and volcanic activity. Even polar shifts and comet impacts have occurred. All these cyclic events have occurred since the beginning of time without human involvement or activity.
The bottom line in this debate is we should attempt to be good stewards of our environment but avoid the illusion we can control nature, weather and our cosmic fate.
Fads
If one is on an investment train, the scenery outside may be interesting but it’s largely noise, nonsense and irrelevant to the train track trend.
It is clear that many:
- Do not even see the trend or the train
- Have a bad habit of visiting chit-chat rooms to see if what others say coincides with their views
- Find articles that support their positions
This is the classic herd instinct where one needs validation of preconceived positions. There is little independent thought or desire to discover and follow the true trend.
Finding Truth & Trends
Now we can disagree on these concepts, concerns and conclusions until the cows come home, and rightfully so. However, our real purpose and goal should always be to uncover the underlying truth and trend of the matter.
Here are two points we can all definitely agree on.
1) In money making market matters, it pays to have:
- Reliable insights
- Reliable information
- Reliable indicators to profit from developing trends
This is achieved by independent thinking and investigation, not by following the herd mentality.
2) In spite of the crowds fantasies, fiction and fads, what makes a market is summarized by the following bottom line perspective.
Final Perspective
Everyone has a different market opinion, objective and outlook. If we all agreed, there would be no market trends and no need for trading.
So we should welcome different opinions and the various opportunity trends that result.
Sounds like a sensible plan.
Updated 2024
===================
Caveat
While past performance and probabilities are favorable, results are not guaranteed. Use these trade plans, stocks or comments at your own risk. All analytical content and commentary provided within or from this site is aimed purely to educate or inform readers on the potential technical and fundamental aspects and possible value of intelligent, mathematically based research tools and charts for due diligence purposes.
No comments:
Post a Comment