Introduction
TIPS (30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities - TIP) is a one of many guides to this trend. RINF is an additional inflation guide. It is an ETF that measures inflation "expectations" by tracking the spread in yield between TIPS and US Treasury Bonds of the same duration.
The RINF does not have a lot of past historical price data to measure and is therefore difficult for one to make a comparative assessment at this time.
This inflationary trend is a gradual process, not necessarily an event. My assessment is the process will begin later this year and then gradually accelerate over time. A TIP or RINF chart will provide clues to its progress on a time frame trend basis.
Price Inflation & Debt Issues
We are now in the early stages of significant price inflation besides those involving cute tricks like reducing the size and quality of a product but charging the same or higher price.
What else? Debt issues
This is currently buried right now but there are increasing debt servicing costs (including rollovers) and future income issues necessary to service that debt. It will pay investors to observe this critical trend and other financial weather indicators pointing to stress in this area. Confidence in the system is key.
This can result in an early acceleration of the trend this very year. Whatever the timeline, it will become prominent.
Bankruptcies and major hits to lenders and shareholders will also increase. Many brick/mortar stores and malls are already closing or slowly going bankrupt. Sears is an example.
An extreme overvaluation of the S&P500 is present. However, prices are likely to surge way over $2500 before ending. A subsequent significant decline will add a negative fear factor to the environment, initially drag gold/silver stocks down but will turn investor's attention to various assets of real value.
Overall, inflationary lending costs to compensate for these adverse risks and results will increase.
A Gold Rush of Historic Proportions
This overall gradual inflationary trend will be connected to and supported by a subsequent search for value, income and a real return on money invested as worldwide debt increases and enormous costs to service that debt become unmanageable.
As price inflation begins to take hold during the next 12-18 months, a gold rush to "value" will occur. Assets searched for and selected will include precious metals as well as other investments with recognized credentials such as farm land, rare coins and reliable food/water sources, etc. Any natural disasters will accelerate the trend.
Gold properties for sale such as this site or here will gradually be at the forefront of this modern day "Gold Rush" for value. They will balloon over time as everyone will want real value for protection, preservation and income to pay their debts. Of course, scammers will attempt to sell any property having even the remotest showing of metal content to the naïve investor. Beware, it's coming.
Further down the road, the gold rush will turn into a stampede of historic proportions. Many of the "legendary" snake oil salesmen who predicted a gold rush to start every month for the last 5 years, will then claim they were right. Most readers will forget their false promises and timing errors.
While current conditions are not right and ripe for a gold rush to begin now, there will come a "trigger moment" from debt and currency value issues which will result in major financial change and a currency reset.
Gold Basing Pattern
Meanwhile, the GLD monthly chart shows gold in a long term basing pattern. A "Convergence Zone" is evident but the overall appearance is still negative. Further price and time work needs to be completed.
Beware of a false breakdown before a more definitive and clear uptrend begins. A break of the downtrend line starts the process. The quarterly chart shows exactly the same picture.
Beware of a false breakdown before a more definitive and clear uptrend begins. A break of the downtrend line starts the process. The quarterly chart shows exactly the same picture.
GLD - 2008 to June 2017 Monthly
(Benchmark Train Tracks)
Click chart to enlarge
In Summary
My assessment is a significant and major Gold Rush will begin to occur within the next 12 -18 months and gradually accelerate over time to 2020 and beyond. Background debt, income requirements and market overvaluations also support this outlook.
Prepare now with gold/silver bullion first on any significant declines and then resource stock investments with positive primary trends.
Good luck!
Note: Some outlooks were provided by my Benchmark longer term predictive programs that reveals a trend structure of pain before gain in most sectors, including gold initially.
6/17/17
Related Analysis:
Benchmark - Click here
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Gold Rush! - Part 2
Inflation Prospects
A few years ago, we predicted a gradual pickup in inflation
in "Gold Rush!"
At the time, we suggested using RINF as a indication of this trend. This is an ETF that measures inflation "expectations" by tracking the spread in yield between TIPS and US Treasury Bonds of the same duration.
RINF has been in a positive daily trend since early April 2020 and, in the weekly, since August on the "C" confirmation signal.
Monthly is close but not yet in a positive posture. I would expect it will turn within the next month or so.
RINF Weekly Benchmark "ABC" Chart
Click chart to enlarge
8/19/20
Monthly Update Note: On a TDI Basis, a positive monthly trend was indeed achieved in November 2020.
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November 2021 Update
RINF Monthly - Nov 2021
Click chart to enlarge
GLD - 2017 to Nov 2021 Monthly
(Benchmark Train Tracks)
GLD downtrend was broken in January 2018
Click chart to enlarge
Reserved for Members of Benchmark
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Important Caveat
While past performance and probabilities are favorable, results are not guaranteed. Use these trade plans, stock selections and recommendations at your own risk. All analytical content provided within or from this site is aimed purely to educate or inform readers on the technical aspects and possible value of intelligent, mathematically based research tools and charts for due diligence purposes.
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