Many readers have found the pendulum methodology "intriguing" and look forward to the results of our work.
Today, I thought a little additional background information on our system trading methods and focus might be in order. This will allow the reader to see the basis for our trading techniques, understand how trends and cycles work and perhaps assist them their own trading techniques and outlook.
Today, I thought a little additional background information on our system trading methods and focus might be in order. This will allow the reader to see the basis for our trading techniques, understand how trends and cycles work and perhaps assist them their own trading techniques and outlook.
Background
My focus is on the marketplace math along with a heavy reliance on science and nature as well as trends and cycles.
You can see the source of some of these references in our writings. Some of the articles are metaphors from nature while many deal with the math and equilibrium issues of the marketplace.
For biographical background information and credentials, see sidebar.
You can see the source of some of these references in our writings. Some of the articles are metaphors from nature while many deal with the math and equilibrium issues of the marketplace.
For biographical background information and credentials, see sidebar.
Primary Focus
The primary areas of interest have been in the resource market since December 2000 plus the S&P500.
In the gold/silver area, the XAU index is used as a proxy for trading purposes since it includes the leading gold and silver producers. Gold/Silver stocks selected are largely producers or have large well defined resources in the ground as in "vaults". They are generally located in perceived safe political jurisdictions with a focus in Canada (Ontario, Quebec) and the US (Nevada, Alaska).
As a professional trader, I primarily trade stocks which match or exceed the S&P500 or XAU's performance in concert with the Trend Directional Indicator (TDI) and its derivatives.
Signature Trend Indicators
S&P500 Weekly - 2019 to 2021
Click chart to enlarge
Other long term S&P500 Charts are here
We have Market Pendulum's very powerful GPS Cycle Indicator to provide cyclical guidance within a trend (green dots in chart).
The system also includes a set of proprietary Signature Trend indicators for fine tuning and confirmation along with a healthy dose of due diligence, attention to detail and determination.
Studies have shown that 60% of a typical stock price change can be directly attributed to the movement of the overall market. Therefore, it just makes common sense to be on the right side of a market trend.
The primary focus on this website is weekly and above for our readers because that is where the larger potential profits and most reliable trends are located.
A proprietary charting software is what we use for all chart displays and trading decisions in a time frame sequence explained elsewhere.
Core Positions
You will note on the Pendulum Portfolio page there are a number of "core" positions that have been completed. To be elevated to a core position, a stock must have achieved at least a 100% net gain. At that point, 50% is sold for a complete return of initial risk capital and the rest rides for free. A few were sold with less then a 100% gain by calculating the number of shares needed to return the initial risk capital. No core position is sold unless a substantial and material adverse change occurs or the company is bought out.
This is not an implied recommendation for this kind of trading strategy since everyone has a different risk tolerance.
Trading Goals
Our goal is to add to premiere long term positions in any portfolio when low risk entry points occur as defined by our leading metrics. As mentioned above, both the TDI and confirmation indicators must confirm before any entry is considered.
Trading Context and Setting
As a trader, I actively use the techniques and primary trading platforms you have seen on this website.
In addition, trading occurs within the context and setting of the next higher time frame to determine the duration of the current trade.
For example, if I have a signal in the daily charts, the weekly charts are also reviewed to see if they are also in a bullish posture. This allows for a longer duration in the trade and a larger potential profit. This is the price, time and distance (PTD) formula.
All stocks are purchased for cash and no margin or leverage has ever been employed.
As a trader, no position is more than 5% of any portfolio. No matter how good a system is "All In" all the time or even some of the time will affect you at some point, with a probability bordering on certainty. One needs only an unfavorable news release, a hedge fund dump or one black swan event to ruin a position. I have seen it happen too many times to count.
Success is always measured in small steps. A reasonable profit or percentage return, based on the time frame we are currently trading in, is the standard I use and employ.
Personal results since 2000 in this area have been truly outstanding. However, there is no point in publishing those results since I am only in competition with myself to improve on the last record or performance.
Money Management
All stocks are purchased for cash and no margin or leverage has ever been employed.
As a trader, no position is more than 5% of any portfolio. No matter how good a system is "All In" all the time or even some of the time will affect you at some point, with a probability bordering on certainty. One needs only an unfavorable news release, a hedge fund dump or one black swan event to ruin a position. I have seen it happen too many times to count.
Success is always measured in small steps. A reasonable profit or percentage return, based on the time frame we are currently trading in, is the standard I use and employ.
Personal & Website Results
Website results for several years are here.
The primary purpose of the website is to simply assist investors, based on our experience, in a certain investment area or direction so they can properly conduct their own due diligence.
The presentation describes our methodology, trading information and techniques that may be helpful in your own work. Our readership is blessed with many professionals including well informed investors who understand these issues and methods.
This website, along with the recommended readings, are totally free and will remain that way for the benefit of all. The best things in life are indeed free.
Enjoy and have a good day!
Trader Garrett
In Summary
The presentation describes our methodology, trading information and techniques that may be helpful in your own work. Our readership is blessed with many professionals including well informed investors who understand these issues and methods.
This website, along with the recommended readings, are totally free and will remain that way for the benefit of all. The best things in life are indeed free.
Enjoy and have a good day!
Trader Garrett
Related:
Market Pendulum Trading System - definitions of trend indicators
Trader Garrett's Library - numerous categorized articles of interest
For seven years Trader Garrett submitted articles to other publishing websites including Financial Sense, Kitco, 321Gold and several others. This was primarily for documentation and credibility purposes.
Those publishing websites exist primarily to highlight or draw attention to a subscription service, product for sale or for advertising revenue activities. We were clearly not part of that process.
Outside publishing was discontinued in March 2013. Unfortunately, some past articles were "lost" by some websites and had to be reconstructed.
In 2015, for a small but serious group of readers, we provided the basic Pathfinder website for training which included many presentations on winning technical techniques, step-by-step guides and trend projections.
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"This is an invaluable system. Everyone says follow the trend but no one provides the specific technical details of an entry or exit point. With this info I'm beginning to understand more about it" ~ Spyros
Market Pendulum History
Publishing Timeline
For seven years Trader Garrett submitted articles to other publishing websites including Financial Sense, Kitco, 321Gold and several others. This was primarily for documentation and credibility purposes.
Those publishing websites exist primarily to highlight or draw attention to a subscription service, product for sale or for advertising revenue activities. We were clearly not part of that process.
Outside publishing was discontinued in March 2013. Unfortunately, some past articles were "lost" by some websites and had to be reconstructed.
Training History
As a professional trader I have taught others the skills learned over many years and it gives me great satisfaction when they succeed.
This training site also included vital time frame trend methodology articles, how-to technical chart presentations and educational information to assist members in their due diligence efforts.
From 2016 to 2019 advanced training was provided in the outstanding Benchmark system that included highly detailed trading methods, Trader Garrett's Gold Mine and portfolio screeners for both long and short term that everyone could use.
These world class trading systems were designed help investors help themselves by providing them with the right tools, techniques and tips.
All members worldwide graduated on Independence Day, July 4th, 2019 and are successfully using and sharing these techniques today with friends and family worldwide.
Graduation Results
All members worldwide graduated on Independence Day, July 4th, 2019 and are successfully using and sharing these techniques today with friends and family worldwide.
While these premiere "Time Frame Trend" programs are no longer offered, they are being successfully utilized by many worldwide.
Perfection was not the objective here as we all make mistakes, being human. Strong, consistent profit performance on a regular basis was the training goal.
Current Update
Today, we display various Benchmark system metrics and methods found nowhere else. We also enjoy uncanny precision and uncommon results every week in all markets with a special emphasis on the undervalued resource space.
Feel free to browse our free site and then perhaps moving on to other special areas of interest such as Unique Perspectives or Trader Garrett's Library.
Related: The Future of Free
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Caveat
While past performance and probabilities are favorable, results are not guaranteed. Use these trade plans, stocks or comments at your own risk. All analytical content and commentary provided within or from this site is aimed purely to educate or inform readers on the potential technical and fundamental aspects and possible value of intelligent, mathematically based research tools and charts for due diligence purposes.
