Starting Over

If one can read the time frame clock, one can tell the the status and posture of a trend.

 
Last month in Strategic Play, we noted the loss of momentum in Gold, Silver and the XAU while the daily and weekly trend were still positive. Protective measures were recommended.

It gives me no pleasure to report that both the TDI daily and weekly time frame trends have failed in the interim while the stronger monthly has continuously been in a downward trajectory.

As a result, we need to start over from square one in the daily time frame. All these markets are now in a negative posture in the daily, weekly and monthly trends.



Take a look at the XAU daily chart below which includes the Pendulum SRA time cycle tool. The TDI has done an excellent job in providing trend guidance since December. 


One does not have to be an analyst to see that this daily chart is not the picture of heath. The XAU’s weekly chart is here.

The daily charts for Gold and Silver are quite similar with the SLV clearly in the weakest position, as demonstrated below.


Let’s hope the TDI is dead wrong on all these markets. Without an immediate lift by early next week (unlikely), their funerals are complete. Again, cheerleading does not change a trend.

Longer term, it will probably take many weeks (at a minimum) to regain a positive picture. Until then, we can safely ignore these markets unless one is short.

Moving to the S&P500

In spite of fundamental issues such as high margin debt (see chart below), a high PE ratio and questionable accounting rules, the S&P500 continues on its merry way, technically speaking. This has more to do with expectations then firm fundamentals. However, money can be made in these trends and within the better performing sectors.

A positive new TDI daily trend is attempting to start. This is within the context and setting of the continuing positive (and stronger) weekly and monthly time trend forces.

The S&P500 weekly and monthly charts are here.

Have a nice Easter and let's enjoy spring.

4/18/14 (updated 4/21)

Creating Time, Buying Time & Time will Tell

In general reference terms, we can all relate to the time frames of the “past, present and future” or “yesterday, today and tomorrow”. These are all valid reference points because they relate to our perception of time period extensions.

Creating Time

 We can “make time” for a project, but we cannot “create time” since it is a straight, progressive and mathematical measurement, not a manufactured product. In this connection, there is no such thing as the “present” or “now”. It just passed you by. There is only the past and the future time frames.

We also cannot change the past. If that were possible, it would result in a change of future outcomes. Of course, if one is living in space, time may be relative or be distorted by black holes in the universe. On this planet, we have to deal with time using our own down to earth reference points.

As a result, the regrettable past is behind us, the present is nowhere to be found and the future is uncertain. What to do? Shall we buy time? 

Buying Time 

As an example, what has your government been doing? They have been “buying time” to avoid the recognition of being monetarily bankrupt. This is not buying time but a simple postponement. 

Time is not a commodity one can buy any more than one can buy time to breathe. In the financial games arena, the government can postpone hard decisions from the past to some point of time into the future. Unfortunately, they have built a pyramid of procrastination which eventually will fail. Their “pastimes” (pun intended) will literally fail in future times. This is guaranteed, even with postponements, because over time:

  • Delaying tactics always reach their limit
  • Ponzi schemes never work
  • Confidence in the system will pass a point of no return

One can rearrange the monetary deck chairs temporarily, bail out the financial frigid water and attempt to plug the holes in the hull but ultimately and regrettably, this financial boat will sink. In my view, confidence in the system is the critical link.

Balance of Time
 

In the natural world, even with free will, we must live in harmony and be in balance with natural time, value and mathematical constraints. The current unnatural order of debt and financial shenanigans will be resolved back into an equilibrium state in a future time with great certainty. This first involves the steps of recognition followed by resolution and then financial redemption.

This process involves a considerable amount of market price changes, time and distance to accomplish. This is quite similar to towing an old car to the junkyard which involves the primary elements of price, time to get there and distance traveled based on my PTD formula noted in the article here.

In financial market trading, prices will discount these future monetary events in advance by way of the bond markets, currencies and commodities, etc. In this connection, one may wish to periodically check in with DanNorcini who covers these areas very astutely and be forewarned.

Time Will Tell


How long the fiscal insanity will continue to be ignored cannot be mathematically predicted with any certainty at this time. Which strand of straw will break the camel’s back is also unknown.

The past is our guide to the future. Based on human nature which tends to postpone decisions until they become visible and on historical precedent of similar situations in the past, this much is clear. It will probably occur initially in increments of increasing intensity to lessen the pain on the peasants, maintain control and to demonstrate “progress”.

Those tactics will ultimately fail but only time will tell us precisely.

Invest wisely.

4/10/14

Recommended Readings & Updates

This Week's Recommended Reading 

Insightful Video - Fed Does not want a Disorderly Rise in the Gold Market - Jim Rickards - Click here  

An awesome performance as well as an inspiration for personal excellence in whatever we do, at whatever age and in whatever condition we find ourselves. Link with Interview 

The Dollar Cannot be Devalued - Click here 

Margin Debt Chart 1990 to 2014
 
Debt Exceeds $100 Trillion Worldwide - Click here  

Visual History of Silver - here Gold - here


Market Pendulum Updates 

The Time Frame Clock - Click here

Premiere Trading Indicators - Click here

Overheard in the Subway (2 parts) - Click here 

Breakpoint - The Empire of Debt Ends - Click here 

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